Coffee prices surge early in the morning amid concerns about the Brazilian harvest and crop quality

Rain in producing areas and tight global stocks support further gains for Arabica and Robusta on international exchanges

The coffee market opened trading this Thursday (18) with strong gains on international exchanges, maintaining the upward trend observed in recent days amid concerns about the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the impact of rain on bean quality, and low global stocks.

Early in the morning, Arabica coffee was advancing on the New York Stock Exchange (ICE Futures US). The July/26 contract was trading at 284.80 cents/lb, up 695 points. September/26 rose 470 points, quoted at 276.60 cents/lb, while December/26 advanced 390 points, to 267.05 cents/lb.

In London, Robusta was also trading higher. The July/26 contract registered a gain of 38 points, trading at US$ 3,718 per ton. The September/26 contract advanced 42 points to US$ 3,664 per ton, while the November/26 contract rose 39 points, quoted at US$ 3,613 per ton.

The market remains attentive to weather conditions in Brazil's producing regions. According to an analysis by the Carvalhaes Office, persistent rains in coffee-growing areas during the harvest period continue to generate concern among operators and buyers, mainly due to the possible impacts on bean quality and the delay in the entry of new coffee into the market.

ICE certified Arabica stocks also continue to be a supporting factor. Data shows that stocks fell to 396,171 bags, the lowest level in recent years and well below the 859,389 bags recorded in the same period last year. This scenario reinforces the perception of tight supply in the short term.

In the Brazilian physical market, trading continues selectively. According to the Carvalhaes Office, the volume of business remains below what is normally observed for this time of year, as many producers are still showing resistance to negotiating their lots at current price levels.

In the field, Climatempo forecasts indicate continued rainfall in areas of Espírito Santo, the Zona da Mata region of Minas Gerais, and part of Rio de Janeiro until Thursday. For other producing regions in the interior of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, drier weather favors the progress of the harvest. From Friday onwards, a new cold front should cause increased instability, mainly in São Paulo, keeping market attention focused on the development of fieldwork.

With the harvest still progressing unevenly across producing regions, forecasts of further rainfall, and reduced global stocks, the market remains sensitive to any information related to Brazilian supply and the quality of the 2026/27 crop.

By: Priscila Alves | Instagram: @priscilaalvestv

Source: Agricultural News