Coffee Opens Higher This Wednesday as Markets Focus on Tight Supply and Weather in Producing Regions

Arabica and Robusta Rise in Early Trading as Certified Stocks Continue to Decline and Brazilian Producers Maintain a Cautious Pace of Sales

Coffee prices opened higher on international exchanges this Wednesday (July 15). The market is attempting to recover part of the previous session's losses, supported by the still-tight supply of Arabica coffee, the continued decline in ICE-certified inventories, and close monitoring of weather conditions across Brazil's main coffee-producing regions.

On the ICE Futures US exchange in New York, the September 2026 Arabica contract was trading at 329.50 US cents per pound, up 340 points. The December 2026 contract gained 330 points, reaching 311.30 US cents/lb.

On ICE Europe, Robusta coffee also traded higher. The September 2026 contract was quoted at US$3,899 per metric ton, up 50 points, while the November 2026 contract advanced 54 points to US$3,854 per metric ton.

The market remains highly volatile following the sharp price swings recorded on Tuesday. According to an analysis by Escritório Carvalhaes, Arabica futures climbed as much as 2,240 points during the trading session before reversing course and closing lower. Meanwhile, Robusta reached an intraday high of US$4,033 per metric ton before ending the day with a modest gain.

One of the main factors supporting prices continues to be the decline in ICE Futures US certified Arabica inventories, which fell by another 2,922 bags, bringing total certified stocks down to 339,652 bags—nearly 489,000 bags lower than the volume recorded during the same period last year.

The limited availability of coffee is also supporting Brazil's physical market, where producers continue to sell only the volumes necessary while awaiting a clearer outlook for the coming months.

In the producing regions, weather remains a key focus. Rainfall earlier this week disrupted harvesting and bean drying activities in parts of southeastern Brazil. Starting this Wednesday, drier weather is expected to return, allowing harvest operations to progress. However, a cold air mass is forecast to keep overnight temperatures low, particularly in Southern Minas Gerais. Despite the colder conditions, weather forecasts indicate a very low risk of frost across Brazil's main coffee-growing areas.

Another factor influencing the market this Wednesday is the exchange rate. After closing Tuesday at BRL 5.0780 per US dollar, the Brazilian real strengthened slightly, with the dollar trading near BRL 5.06. This movement tends to reduce the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee exports and also affects domestic coffee price formation.

By: Priscila Alves

Instagram: @priscilaalvestvSource: Notícias Agrícolas