Coffee Starts November on a High Note with Arabica at 396.90 cents/lb and Robusta at US$ 4,550/t

Market reacts positively after a volatile October, as irregular rainfall in Brazil and tariff tensions with the U.S. influence prices

This Monday (November 3), the coffee market opens the month on a positive trajectory, with both varieties posting significant gains. Arabica coffee in New York is trading higher, with the December 2025 contract quoted at 396.90 cents/lb (+1.24%), March 2026 at 375.85 cents/lb (+0.97%), and May 2026 at 360.00 cents/lb (+0.71%). Meanwhile, Robusta coffee in London is also advancing, with November 2025 at US$ 4,550/t (+0.57%), January 2026 at US$ 4,563/t (+0.51%), and March 2026 at US$ 4,484/t (+0.47%).

The bullish scenario reflects a combination of climatic and geopolitical factors that marked October. Irregular and scarce rainfall across several regions of Brazil’s coffee belt last month raised concerns about the blooming and fruit set for the 2026 crop, creating uncertainty over future production. Additionally, the U.S. decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee has served as a short-term bullish factor, especially considering that the U.S. is the largest individual consumer and Brazil is the world’s leading supplier.

Throughout October, the market showed significant volatility, with Arabica rising 4.6%, from 374.85 cents/lb to 392.00 cents/lb in the December contract. Robusta performed even better, gaining 10.9% over the same period. In the Brazilian physical market, Arabica from South Minas rose 2.2%, from R$ 2,210.00 to R$ 2,260.00 per bag, while Conilon from Espírito Santo recorded a sharper increase of 6.5%, from R$ 1,305.00 to R$ 1,390.00 per bag (purchase basis).

The continued decline in certified stocks on the New York Exchange has helped support prices, reflecting tighter supply in the U.S. market. At the same time, trade tensions have intensified amid discussions over potential tariffs on Colombian coffee versus possible reductions for Vietnamese coffee, adding further complexity to the global scenario.

By: Ericson Cunha

Source: Notícias Agrícolas